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Ukraine playing the 'Iran card' triggers a geopolitical chain reaction, affecting cross-border trade, transportation, and costs of rotary drilling rigs

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Worried that the United States may continue to focus on the Middle East while neglecting itself, Ukraine has taken the initiative to play the "Iran card" by providing drone interception technology to Middle Eastern countries and dispatching anti drone expert teams to compete for Western resources. This move has sparked strong dissatisfaction from Iran and further exacerbated the complexity of the global geopolitical situation. On March 15th, the Financial Times published an article stating that the Middle East conflict has seriously diverted Washington's political attention. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Karas, also admitted that the Middle East and Ukraine are competing for the same resources, and the current focus of the United States is clearly shifting towards the Middle East. As a heavy engineering equipment with a single weight of 40-100 tons, rotary drilling rigs heavily rely on sea, land, and air multimodal transportation for cross-border trade. The geopolitical chain reaction triggered by Ukraine's "Iran brand" is having a profound impact on its cross-border trade from multiple aspects such as transportation efficiency, cost control, and risk prevention, and the industry is facing new challenges and uncertainties.


The maritime transportation pattern is once again disturbed, and the shipping cost of rotary drilling rigs remains high

The Iran Ukraine confrontation triggered by Ukraine playing the "Iran card", coupled with the ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict, has further put pressure on the global shipping pattern, directly leading to high cross-border shipping costs for rotary drilling rigs. Iran has made it clear that the entire Ukrainian territory has become a legitimate target of its attack due to Ukraine's provision of drone related support to Israel. This confrontational situation has once again escalated the navigation risks of global core shipping channels such as the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. After the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, Iran began to restrict navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, the escalating conflict between Iran and Ukraine has further heightened concerns among shipping companies. Major global ship war insurance underwriting institutions continue to tighten insurance coverage in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters, with war insurance premiums remaining at a high level of more than 10 times. For a ship with a market value of 200 million US dollars, war insurance premiums have skyrocketed from 625000 US dollars to 7.5 million US dollars. Coupled with cargo insurance and crew danger allowances, the hidden costs of rotary drilling rig sea transportation have increased significantly. At the same time, the United States has prioritized the allocation of resources to the Middle East, leading to a decrease in its control over the global shipping order and a rise in piracy activities in some waters. In order to avoid risks, ship owners have not only increased their charter prices, but also adjusted their routes to bypass high-risk areas, resulting in longer and more costly cross-border shipping of rotary drilling rigs, an increase of 15% -20% compared to before, further increasing the logistics burden on enterprises.

The uncertainty of flight routes has escalated, making the delivery time of rotary drilling rigs even more difficult

The geopolitical fluctuations caused by Ukraine's "Iran card" and the shift of US attention towards the Middle East have further escalated the uncertainty of cross-border shipping routes for rotary drilling rigs, putting delivery time in a passive position. At present, major global shipping giants such as Maersk still maintain the plan of circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope, with a range of 10-19 days longer than the original route. However, the intensification of the Iran Ukraine confrontation has made shipping companies hesitant to easily resume the route through the Strait of Hormuz, and some companies have even further expanded the circumnavigation range, resulting in an additional 3-7 days for the transportation cycle of rotary drilling rigs. At the same time, the United States has given priority to the Middle East, and its coordination with ports in Europe, Central Asia and other regions has declined, resulting in port congestion, declining ship turnover efficiency and other problems that continue to worsen. The waiting time for equipment reloading operations at cross-border ports such as Khorgos and Pingxiang has increased significantly. Operations that could have been completed in 40 minutes sometimes need to be extended to hours or even days. Similar situations occur when a rotary drilling rig planned to be transported to Vietnam is stranded in the cargo yard due to poor port coordination. Rotary drilling rigs are mostly customized equipment, and their delivery time is directly related to the progress of overseas engineering projects. Delay in delivery time may not only lead to project delays, but also trigger the risk of corporate default. Some overseas buyers have started to slow down their ordering pace to avoid losses caused by uncertainty in delivery time.

Land transportation channels are affected by geography, resulting in a decrease in cross-border land transportation efficiency

The chain reaction triggered by Ukraine playing the "Iran card" not only affects maritime transportation, but also affects the cross-border land transportation of rotary drilling rigs through geopolitical transmission, resulting in a decrease in land transportation efficiency and an increase in costs. For cross-border trade of rotary drilling rigs in Central Asia, Europe and other directions, land transportation is an important supplement. However, after the United States shifted its attention to the Middle East, the coordination of cross-border transportation in Europe and Central Asia has weakened. In addition, the regional tension caused by the Iran Ukraine confrontation has led to stricter inspections on some cross-border roads, resulting in a decrease in transportation efficiency and an average increase of 1-2 days per trip. At the same time, the tense geopolitical situation coupled with the Middle East conflict has pushed up diesel prices, resulting in a 12% -18% increase in the operating costs of heavy flatbed trucks and special transport vehicles required for land transportation. Especially in cross-border transportation in Central Asia, the transportation cost of 14 axle special flatbed trucks carrying rotary drilling rigs has increased more significantly. In addition, some land logistics companies have reduced cross-border transportation capacity to avoid geopolitical risks, resulting in tight transportation capacity for rotary drilling rigs on land, further pushing up transportation quotes and increasing logistics cost pressure for enterprises.

Air transportation resources are diverted, and emergency transportation costs for rotary drilling rigs are rising

In cross-border trade of rotary drilling rigs, air transportation is only used for emergency parts supply or small unit transportation. However, due to the impact of Ukraine's "Iran brand" and the Middle East conflict, global air transportation resources have been heavily diverted, and emergency transportation costs remain high. After focusing its attention on the Middle East, the United States has deployed 10000 interception drones originally intended for Ukraine to the region, causing a global shortage of drone related transportation resources. At the same time, the conflict in the Middle East and the confrontation between Iran and Ukraine have pushed up global aviation fuel prices, coupled with adjustments to some intercontinental routes due to geopolitical risks, resulting in a significant increase in fuel surcharges, causing the air transportation cost of emergency parts for rotary drilling rigs to increase by 20% -25% compared to before. For the core components of rotary drilling rigs urgently needed in overseas engineering projects, enterprises have to bear high air transportation costs, otherwise it will lead to equipment shutdown. This dilemma further squeezes the profit margin of enterprises, especially for small and medium-sized rotary drilling rig export enterprises, the increase in air transportation costs has become an unbearable burden. In addition, the United States' tilt towards air transportation resources in the Middle East has also led to a shortage of air transportation capacity in core export markets such as Europe and Central Asia for rotary drilling rigs, further extending the transportation efficiency of parts.

The intensification of resource competition highlights the transmission effect of trade costs for rotary drilling rigs

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Karas, has made it clear that the Middle East and Ukraine are competing for the same resources, and the United States is currently focusing on the Middle East. This resource competition is being transmitted through the supply chain, which has a significant impact on the pricing and transaction of cross-border trade of rotary drilling rigs. For rotary drilling rig production enterprises, the synchronous increase in sea, land, and air transportation costs, coupled with the increase in cross-border transportation costs of raw materials caused by the United States' resource allocation to the Middle East, has led to a significant rise in overall production costs. As a capital good, rotary drilling rigs are highly price sensitive to overseas customers, making it difficult for enterprises to pass on all cost increases to customers. They can only bear part of the pressure on their own, resulting in further compression of export profit margins. The export profit margins of some small and medium-sized enterprises have decreased by 4-6 percentage points. For overseas buyers, the increase in transportation costs coupled with uncertainty in delivery time has led to increased procurement costs and risks for rotary drilling rigs. Many buyers have chosen to postpone orders, and some orders that were originally planned to be executed have even been cancelled, resulting in a temporary decline in cross-border trade volume of rotary drilling rigs and a decrease in overall trade activity in the industry.

Geopolitical risks overlap, making cross-border trade prevention and control of rotary drilling rigs more difficult

The Iran Ukraine confrontation triggered by Ukraine playing the "Iran card", coupled with multiple factors such as the Middle East conflict and the shift in US attention, has significantly increased the difficulty of risk prevention and control in cross-border trade of rotary drilling rigs, and various hidden risks continue to be highlighted. On the one hand, the confrontation between Iran and Ukraine has intensified the security risks of core shipping channels such as the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The risks of war and detention faced by rotary drilling rigs during sea transportation have significantly increased. Even if companies pay high premiums, it is difficult to completely avoid risks. Once the situation in the strait worsens, ships may face problems such as detention and interception, resulting in equipment being unable to be delivered on time. On the other hand, the United States' priority allocation of resources to the Middle East may lead to adjustments in its trade policies towards Europe, Central Asia, and other regions. Some countries may introduce stricter cross-border transportation control measures, further increasing the difficulty of cross-border transportation of rotary drilling rigs. In addition, Iran's tough stance towards Ukraine may trigger further escalation of the regional situation, indirectly affecting the stability of the supply chain related to rotary drilling rigs and bringing more unpredictable risks to cross-border trade for enterprises.

Enterprises proactively seek change and adopt multiple measures to cope with geopolitical fluctuations

Faced with multiple impacts caused by Ukraine playing the "Iran card", cross-border trade related enterprises of rotary drilling rigs are actively adjusting their strategies, taking multiple measures to reduce risks and alleviate cost pressures. In terms of logistics optimization, enterprises further optimize transportation plans, reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz route, expand alternative routes such as the Red Sea Suez Canal, integrate orders and centralized transportation, improve loading rates, and reduce unit transportation costs; Some enterprises have drawn on the experience of exporting construction machinery to expand alternative channels such as railway transportation, alleviate the pressure of sea and land transportation, and avoid delays in delivery caused by a single channel. In terms of risk prevention and control, enterprises should strengthen communication with insurance companies, reasonably allocate insurance plans, avoid war risks and detention risks, closely monitor changes in the geopolitical situation, adjust transportation plans in a timely manner, and avoid equipment detention at ports. In terms of market layout, enterprises are accelerating the expansion of overseas markets, shortening transportation distances, reducing route risks and transportation costs, while strengthening communication with overseas distributors and project parties, optimizing payment and delivery terms, jointly sharing costs and risks, and stabilizing trade cooperation.

Long term impact is evident, promoting the optimization and upgrading of cross-border trade of rotary drilling rigs

The geopolitical chain reaction triggered by Ukraine playing the "Iran card" essentially reflects the complexity of the global geopolitical situation, and the trend of the United States shifting its attention to the Middle East is difficult to change in the short term, which will have a long-term impact on cross-border trade of rotary drilling rigs. In the long run, this impact will force the industry to accelerate the optimization of cross-border trade layout, and promote the development of cross-border trade of rotary drilling rigs towards a more stable and diversified direction. On the one hand, enterprises will further increase their localization efforts overseas, establish production bases, warehousing centers, and service networks in core markets such as Europe and Central Asia, shorten transportation distances, avoid geopolitical situations and transportation risks, reduce transportation costs, and reduce dependence on single routes and markets. On the other hand, enterprises will accelerate the upgrading of their logistics system, promote the development of multimodal transportation and intelligent logistics, improve transportation efficiency and flexibility, and strengthen the research and development of energy-saving and lightweight rotary drilling rigs to reduce the difficulty and energy consumption of equipment transportation. In addition, the industry will strengthen international cooperation, promote the establishment of a more stable cross-border transportation cooperation mechanism, jointly respond to the challenges brought by geopolitical fluctuations, and promote the sustainable development of cross-border trade of rotary drilling rigs.


Anhui Yingxie Foundation Engineering Co., Ltd. is a leading exporter of construction machinery in China.

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