The breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and escalating conflicts have put the maritime supply chain for large foundation components in the Middle East under severe strain and volatility.

The brief period of stable navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has come to a complete end as both the US and Iran conduct airstrikes on military targets and publicly accuse each other of violating the ceasefire memorandum. Combined with the ongoing turmoil in the Lebanon Israel situation, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have rebounded comprehensively, and the Persian Gulf shipping industry, which was gradually recovering, has once again fallen into a tense situation. The ocean transportation of oversized, overweight, and non dismantling pile foundation equipment such as rotary drilling rigs and pile drivers has been deeply impacted in terms of route safety, freight costs, delivery time, and order expectations, leading to a significant increase in uncertainty in cross-border logistics operations.

The risk of navigation in the strait has returned to a high level, and large ships have become the norm to avoid risks and avoid detours

This round of conflict stems from differences in interpretation of the ceasefire agreement terms and a game of control over the strait between the two sides. Commercial ships have been attacked by drones, military targets along the coast have been frequently attacked, and the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has sharply declined. Compared to ordinary bulk cargo and container ships, heavy lift ships and semi submersible ships that carry rotary drilling rigs and pile drivers have larger targets, higher value, and no emergency unloading conditions, making them key hedging objects in geopolitical risks. For safety reasons, most ship owners have suspended direct flights to the Persian Gulf and prioritized the route around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, directly extending the distance and duration of long-distance transportation between Europe and Asia, significantly delaying the delivery progress of pile foundation equipment in the Middle East and Europe regions.

Geopolitical risk premium surges, and the comprehensive cost of large sea freight continues to rise

The escalation of the situation in the Middle East has directly pushed up the rates of maritime war insurance, and the increase in insurance costs for high-value engineering and large equipment is particularly significant. At the same time, the turbulent situation disrupts the stability of international oil prices, and the high operation of ship fuel surcharges adds to the dual cost pressure, resulting in a significant increase in offshore logistics expenses for pile foundation equipment. In addition, the chaotic order of cross-strait shipping has led to frequent incidents of ships being stranded and waiting for navigation, resulting in hidden costs such as demurrage fees, yard storage fees, and urgent dispatch fees, further compressing the profit margins of engineering machinery foreign trade and logistics enterprises, and completely breaking the stability of equipment overseas quotations.

The regional situation is spreading in multiple areas, and expectations for overseas infrastructure orders are becoming more conservative

This turmoil is no longer limited to the confrontation between the United States and Iran. The conflict between Lebanon and Israel continues to escalate, and the game between multiple regional forces intensifies. The overall business and infrastructure environment in the Middle East has deteriorated. Due to risk considerations, infrastructure investors from multiple countries have postponed the approval and construction progress of new energy pile foundations, road and bridge renovations, port expansion and other engineering projects, and postponed the procurement plans for rotary drilling rigs and pile drivers. As one of the core overseas markets for domestic pile foundation equipment in the Middle East, the demand side's wait-and-see sentiment is heating up, the increase in large sea freight sources is slowing down, and logistics companies are becoming cautious in their deployment of Middle East dedicated line transportation capacity.

Doubts about the effectiveness of the agreement, large-scale logistics turning to multiple channels to avoid risks

The binding force of the current ceasefire memorandum between the United States and Iran has significantly weakened, and both sides have reported ongoing compound confrontation without a clear signal to end the war. It is difficult to restore stable navigation order in the Strait of Hormuz in the short term. In order to avoid the risk of a single shipping channel, the industry is gradually adjusting its logistics layout, reducing its dependence on direct shipping routes to the Persian Gulf, and diverting the supply of pile foundation equipment through multimodal transport channels such as China Europe freight trains and Southeast Asian transit shipping. At the same time, it adopts equipment modular split shipping and short-term flexible booking models to hedge the supply chain risks caused by geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East and ensure stable cross-border delivery.